Isbadalka Juguraafi siyasaded ee Aduunka Iyo Sameynta Geeska Africa (Geopolitical flashpoint)

Isbadalka juquraafi siyasadeed ee aduunka ee Ethiopia dooneyso iney qayb ka noqoto taaso ku khasbaysa Ethiopia iney hesho badd (geopolitical flashpoint)

Sanadkan cusub ee 2024 waxa ay Ethiopia ku biirtay ururka loo soo gabiyo (BRICS) kaaso ay ku midoobeen wadamo ay kamid yihiin China, Russia, India, south Africa, Brazil, ururkan hadafkiisa iyo ujeedadiisa siyasadeed ayaa ah 2 arrimood

1) in lasameeyo nidaam dhaqaale oo u dhigma G7 ama hayaddaha dhaqalaha ee rer galbeedka sida IMF iyo World bank si meesha looga saaro isticmaalka lacagta dollar-ka ee aduunka qabsaday "de-dollarization" nidaamka dhaqaale ee ururka Brics uu abuuray waxa looyaqana (New Development Bank) 

2) ujeedka labaad ee ururka BRICS waa in la'abuuro nidaam kaas oo uu horkacaayo dawalad China, nidaamkas waxa looyaqana "Belt and Road Initiative" waa mashruuc uu wadanka China doonaayo inuu aduunka oo dhan isku xiro (AfroEuroasia) oo uu sameyn ku yeesho aduunka oo dhan, hindisahan waxa lasheega inuu lamid yahay nidamkii mareynkanku markii uu dhamaday dagaal weynihii 2aad ee aduunka uu mareykanku awoodisi bananka usoobaxday uu sameyay qarshe loo yaqaan "Marshall plan" kasoo mareykanku uu lacag amaah ah uu Europe ugu deeqay si ay Europe ugasoo ka-bato khasarihii dagaalkii 2aad.

Kamid noqoshada xubin ururka "BRICS" wadamada kala ah, Iran, saudia Arabia iyo Ethiopia.

Wadamadan waxa ay xubin ka noqdeen BRICS sanadkan, suaasha isweydinta mudan ayaa ah maxay tahay sababta ay uga midnoqdeen ururkan?

1) dawalad Iran waxa colaad iyo dagaal kala dhexeyay dawalada rer galbeedka ah tan iyo 1978 markii kacdoonka uu ka dhacay Iran ee waxwaliba ay isbadaleen, Iran dagaal dhaqaale oo cunaqabateen ugu horeyso ayaa sanado badan go'doomiyay taaso ay ugu wacan tahay dagaalka kala dhexeeya rer-galbeedka, waxa ay Iran u aragtaa fursad weyn in ay hesho xulufo si ay ulla dirirto isticmaalka dollar-ka. Sidokle Iran waa wadan qani ku ah oil-ka oo suuq weyn ayay kahelaysa ururka BRICS.

2) Saudia Arabia Waxa aad mooda in mudooyinkii danbe xirirka kala dhexeyay Washington uu dib kasoo xumaaday kadib dilkii wariyihii caanka ahaa ee Jamal khashoggi ee lagu dilay safarada saudia Arabia ee wadanka Turkey, taaso mamulka Biden uu kudhalilay dhaxal sugaha boqortoyada saudia Arabia Mohamed Bin Salman (MBS), sidookale waxa ay saudia Arabia iyo mareykanku aad isii kala fogadeen kadib markii uu qarxay dagaalka Gaza ka socda kaaso wadamadda Muslim-ka iyo mareykanku aad ugu kala fogadeen, waxase xusid mudan in saudia Arabia uu yahay wadanka ugu shiidal soosarka badan wadamada ku bahoobay (OPEC) "Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries"

3) Ethiopia sidaan lawada socono waa waddan ay konool yihiiin inkabada 100 million iyo siyaadiyo waana wadanka labaad ee ugu dadka badan qarada Africa, nasiib daro wadanka Ethiopia waa wadan bilaa badda tan iyo markii erteria ay ka go-day, lakin Ethiopia waa wadan horumar aad uweyn sameyay sanadihii ugu danbeyay inkastoo qabado badani ay kajiraan dhanka dawlidnimada, doorashooyinka iyo democradiyadda, reysalwasaaah abe Ahmed tan iyo markii uu bilowday dagaalkii uu lagalay tigray waxa ay aad ukala dorkeen dawaladaha rer-galbeedka siiba mareykanka, ilaa cunaqabateen lagu soorogay dhowar qof oo ka tirsan nidaamka abe Ahmed, abe Ahmed waxa ay dani ku khasabtay inuu baddal kale raadsado waxa uuna fursad muhim ah u arkay ururka BRICS inuu ku biiri si uu ugahelo garab, nasiib daro Ethiopia malahan saliid amaba badda ay la suuq tagto lakin abe Ahmed taas badalkeed waxa uu fursad u arkay in meesha ugu dhow ee uu badd kaheli karo ay tahay Somaliya, si ay Ethiopia uga qayb noqoto mustablka mashruuc weyn ee China gadh-wadeenka ka yahay ee (Belt and Road initiative)